American Sports

Teams are often accused of tanking for better draft picks, but does it actually work in football? Is there evidence to support or refute this strategy?

Tanking in football is a controversial strategy, and its effectiveness is debatable. While a high draft pick can lead to talent like a franchise quarterback, the NFL’s parity-driven structure makes it harder for teams to tank successfully. Many top draft picks still require development, and a lack of immediate impact can prolong rebuilding.

several teams, including the Philadelphia 76ers in the NBA, who famously adopted the mantra "Trust the Process" during their tanking phase from 2013 to 2016. In the NFL, teams like the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions have also been accused of tanking to acquire high draft picks
the Detroit Lions acquired the first overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft but failed to win a single division title or playoff game during quarterback Matthew Stafford's 12-year tenure.

I think tanking exists to some extent in the NFL, but it's not as prevalent as in other sports. Teams may choose to rebuild and prioritize future draft picks, but it's rare to see a team deliberately lose games. The NFL's salary cap, player contracts, and competitive nature make tanking less effective. Even in rebuilding years, teams try to win, but long-term success is the focus.

While tanking is less common in the NFL compared to other sports, it's still a potential strategy for teams focused on long-term rebuilding. Teams might intentionally focus on player development or avoid win-now moves to secure higher draft picks. However, NFL teams also need to maintain fan interest and competitive integrity, making tanking harder to execute openly.

Yes, but it’s risky. Unlike the NBA, the NFL's short careers and unpredictable draft picks make tanking less effective. Teams like the 2019 Dolphins “reset” but still competed. True tanking rarely guarantees success—good coaching and development matter more.